Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group, in its housing forecast dated September 11, projects that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will average 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2026. That is a projection, not an offer anyone can walk into a lender and get. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey put the 30-year rate at 7.28 percent on October 1, and the Mortgage Bankers Association reported a 7.3 percent contract rate for the week ending September 25. Fannie Mae’s forecast therefore sits below where the weekly surveys now stand, and the gap decides how much weight buyers and refinancers can put on it.
A rate forecast that sits below today’s market
The September forecast lays out the 30-year rate quarter by quarter. Fannie Mae’s housing forecast table shows 6.1 percent for the first quarter of 2026, 6.4 percent for the second, 6.7 percent for the third and 6.8 percent for the fourth. For 2027 it shows 6.7 percent in every quarter. The annual averages come out at 6.5 percent for 2026 and 6.7 percent for 2027. The path rises through this year, peaks in the fourth quarter and then eases by a tenth of a point.
The weekly surveys tell a different story about the present. The MBA’s survey for the week ending September 25 showed the 30-year contract rate for conforming loans at 7.3 percent, up from 7.12 percent a week earlier. Total mortgage applications fell 6 percent, the refinance index dropped 9 percent and the purchase index slipped 4 percent. Joel Kan, the MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist, said mortgage rates “jumped to their highest level in almost three years, pushing borrowers to the sidelines.”
Freddie Mac’s survey dated October 1 had the 30-year at 7.28 percent, against 7.03 percent the week before and 6.34 percent a year earlier. The 15-year rate stood at 6.60 percent, up from 6.42 percent the prior week and 5.55 percent a year ago. Anyone asking whether rates will come down by year end is looking at a forecast of 6.8 percent for the final quarter, while the two weekly readings published since the forecast came out are both above 7 percent. The Federal Reserve also raised its target range by a quarter point on September 16, to 3.75 to 4 percent, five days after the forecast was dated.
Mortgage rate forecasts get revised every month, and The Retirement Money Brief follows the rate and housing numbers as they change, with the dates that matter.
Get the free weekday brief → Free from RetireShield. Unsubscribe anytime.
What the forecast expects for home sales and prices
Fannie Mae’s September numbers describe a housing market that grows slowly rather than rebounds. Total home sales are forecast at 4,692 thousand for 2026, a seasonally adjusted annual rate, which is 1.3 percent below the prior year. The forecast for 2027 is 4,882 thousand. Existing home sales, the resale part of that total, are projected at 4,062 thousand in 2026 and 4,215 thousand in 2027. The forecast has sales rising next year while the 30-year rate averages 6.7 percent.
Prices are forecast to cool further. Fannie Mae’s own home price index is projected to rise 2.3 percent in 2026 and 1.0 percent in 2027. The 2027 figure is a small gain, and the forecast does not project a price decline. The same table that carries those price numbers carries the 6.7 percent rate for every quarter of 2027, so the sales and price projections for that year are built around a rate below today’s surveys.
Purchase and refinance loans in the forecast
The same document projects how much lending those rates will support. Total single-family mortgage originations are forecast at $2,121 billion for 2026 and $2,279 billion for 2027. Purchase loans account for $1,426 billion of the 2026 total and $1,477 billion of the 2027 total. Refinancing accounts for $695 billion this year and $802 billion next year, so the refinance forecast grows by a wider margin than the purchase forecast does.
That refinance figure depends on a 6.7 percent rate in 2027. The MBA’s contract rate was 7.3 percent for the week ending September 25, and the same survey recorded a 9 percent drop in refinance applications as rates climbed. The 2027 refinance projection of $802 billion is therefore the part of the forecast most tied to rates coming down from the levels the weekly surveys now show.
The forecast is a snapshot taken on September 11. It predates the Fed’s September 16 increase and the two weekly rate readings above 7 percent that followed, and Fannie Mae publishes a new housing forecast each month. As of this week the forecast page still lists September as the latest edition, so the 6.8 percent fourth-quarter figure has not yet been revised in either direction.
Tracking the weekly rate against Fannie Mae’s 6.8 percent
The free, official benchmark for the 30-year rate is Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which publishes the weekly 30-year and 15-year averages along with the prior week and year-ago figures. The reading from October 1 was 7.28 percent for the 30-year. A lender’s quote for a specific borrower can differ from any survey average, so the survey is a yardstick and not a price.
Fannie Mae’s next housing forecast is the other number to watch. It will show whether the researchers keep a 6.8 percent fourth-quarter average or move it toward the 7 percent range the surveys now show. Any revision to the 6.7 percent rate shown for each quarter of 2027 would also move the sales, price and refinance projections that are built on it.
The comparison that stands out is the one inside Fannie Mae’s own table. The 30-year rate in the weekly surveys, at 7.28 percent on October 1, is above the 6.8 percent forecast for the fourth quarter and above the 6.7 percent the same forecast projects for every quarter of 2027. Unless weekly rates come back toward those levels, the September forecast is a view of where Fannie Mae’s researchers expected rates to go, and it has not matched where rates are.
More Financial Reading
- How many CDs can you park at 1 bank? FDIC rules you must know
- Adding someone to your bank account: tax traps and smart moves
- The ideal retirement withdrawal rate so your savings actually last
This article was produced with AI assistance and reviewed by The Money Overview’s editorial team.
