Economy & The Fed
Federal Reserve decisions, inflation data, interest rates, GDP, employment reports, recession indicators, and the broader economic picture.
Latest in Economy & The Fed
Brent crude jumped 2.5% Tuesday to $98.47 — Iran’s foreign ministry now says vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz “will have costs” as part of any ceasefire deal
Iran is no longer just threatening to weaponize the Strait of Hormuz. It is billing for passage. Brent crude settled at $98.47 a barrel on...
80% of companies that adopted AI cut jobs this year — and a new study finds the layoffs haven’t actually boosted profits at most of them
Companies rushed to cut headcount after rolling out artificial intelligence tools. For most of them, the payoff never arrived. The headline claim that 80% of...
One year after Moody’s stripped the U.S. of its last AAA rating, the 30-year Treasury yield just hit 5.14% — the number that sets the floor under every mortgage
The 30-year Treasury yield crossed 5.14% in late May 2025, a level not seen since before the 2008 financial crisis. It arrived almost to the...
Brent crude hit $114 this week, the highest of the entire Iran war — after the U.S. sank six Iranian boats and the UAE came under drone attack
Brent crude hit $114 a barrel on May 19, 2026, its highest price since the Iran conflict began. The spike followed two shocks in rapid...
The Fed meets June 17 with markets betting 98% it does nothing — meaning your 6.5% mortgage and 21.5% credit card rate are locked in deep into 2026
Put 10 percent down on a $400,000 house today and the 30-year fixed principal-and-interest payment runs about $2,270 a month. The same loan at the...
One-fifth of the world’s oil is now trapped behind the Strait of Hormuz — the largest energy supply shock ever recorded, and it just pushed gas to $4.53
The pump reads $4.53. For millions of American drivers filling up in June 2026, that number is the most visible consequence of a crisis unfolding...
Jet fuel prices are up 80% since the Iran war started — Delta says higher fuel costs alone will add $2 billion this quarter, and that bill lands on every summer flight
A round-trip flight from Atlanta to Los Angeles cost about $280 last June. This summer, the same route is pricing north of $400 on many...
Brent settled near $108 the morning Iran’s counteroffer collapsed — refiners typically pass crude hikes through to the pump in 7 to 10 days
Drivers filling up this week are still paying late-spring prices. That window is closing fast. Brent crude, the international benchmark that sets the cost of...
Wall Street now gives 71% odds of a Fed rate HIKE by March — because inflation hit 3.8% in April and the Fed’s last meeting had 4 dissents
The Federal Reserve hasn’t raised interest rates in over a year, but Wall Street is betting that streak is about to end. As of May...
Brent crude hit $111 the morning Iran’s ceasefire expired — Trump posted “there won’t be anything left of them” as a drone hit the UAE’s nuclear plant
A single drone crossed into the western United Arab Emirates on the morning of May 17, 2026, and struck an electricity generator on the outer...
Oil markets need until 2027 to rebalance even if the Iran war ends tomorrow — Aramco says Hormuz exports take months to restart, and the consumer pays the bill
Saudi Aramco’s chief executive told investors during the company’s first-quarter earnings call that restarting full crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz would take “many...
The Iran war just hit Day 77 — Brent is up 45%, gas is up 41%, and Wall Street still expects the Fed to do nothing about it
The fuel pump at a Costco outside Dallas read $4.23 a gallon on a recent weekday afternoon, and the line of cars stretched into the...
All three biggest investment banks now agree the Fed won’t cut rates in June — Warsh takes over with 98% market-priced odds of holding
JPMorgan Chase was the last to fall in line. With its research team now calling for a hold at the Federal Reserve’s June meeting, all...
Americans haven’t been this pessimistic about their finances since 2018 — 32% of households now expect things to get worse in 2026
A gallon of milk costs 26% more than it did in January 2020. Average rents in major metro areas have jumped by a similar margin....
Builder confidence just crashed to its lowest level since September — 24 straight months of negative readings is now the longest sentiment slump in NAHB history
Home builders have not felt good about the housing market in two full years, and the latest data shows their mood just got worse. The...
Iran’s ceasefire expires tomorrow — gas is $4.52, oil hit $109, and the last time Brent was this high, gas crossed $5 within three weeks
Fill your tank today. By this time next week, $4.52 a gallon could look like a bargain. The ceasefire between the United States and Iran,...
Oil surged past $107 a barrel after Trump said he’s “losing patience” with Iran — the last time Brent was this high, gas crossed $5 nationally within three weeks
The last time Brent crude held above $107 a barrel for more than a week, American drivers watched the national gasoline average blow past $5...
Iran said it “cannot trust the Americans at all” — a ship was seized off the UAE, an Indian cargo vessel was sunk, and the ceasefire expires in 48 hours
Within a single 24-hour stretch in mid-May 2026, armed individuals hijacked a vessel anchored off the United Arab Emirates and forced it toward Iranian waters,...
The 10-year Treasury hit 4.59% while the 30-year crossed 5.08% — the bond market is screaming that rates aren’t coming down anytime soon
If you spent the past year waiting for borrowing costs to drop, the bond market just answered with a two-word reply: not yet. In late...
A $25 billion Treasury auction just cleared at 5.046% — the last time the government paid this much to borrow for 30 years was before the iPhone existed
The U.S. Treasury sold $25 billion in 30-year bonds on May 13, 2026, and the clearing yield landed at 5.046 percent. That is the highest...