Economy & The Fed
Federal Reserve decisions, inflation data, interest rates, GDP, employment reports, recession indicators, and the broader economic picture.
Latest in Economy & The Fed
The White House says Americans are keeping more of what they earn — but consumer confidence just hit a 74-year low
The IRS says the average tax refund this spring is $3,571. The White House used Tax Day to declare that “Americans are keeping more of...
Consumer confidence just hit its lowest point in 74 years — worse than the 2008 crash, worse than COVID
The last time American consumers felt anything close to this pessimistic, the country was in the grip of the worst financial crisis since the Great...
Iran declares Strait of Hormuz open — oil plunges 10%, but don’t expect cheap gas anytime soon
On a single day in late April 2026, Iran’s foreign minister told the world the Strait of Hormuz was “completely open” for commercial shipping. Within...
Gold hits $4,819 per ounce — here’s what’s driving the safe-haven rally in 2026
On the afternoon of March 18, 2026, minutes after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell finished his post-meeting press conference, gold futures on COMEX blew past...
Weekly jobless claims drop 11,000 to 207,000 — labor market holds steady amid layoff headlines
New unemployment filings fell to 207,000 for the week ending April 11, 2026, the Department of Labor reported Thursday, a drop of 11,000 from the...
Citadel’s Ken Griffin: “The world’s going to end up in a recession” if Hormuz stays shut 6–12 months
Ken Griffin, the billionaire founder of hedge fund giant Citadel, warned in mid-April 2026 that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would drag...
March PPI comes in at +0.5% — less than half the forecast; energy shock didn’t fully leak into wholesale prices
The energy shock was supposed to rip through the entire wholesale price chain. It didn’t. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on April 14 that...
CME FedWatch now shows a 40% probability of a rate HIKE before any cut
The number that stopped Wall Street’s rate-cut party: 40%. That is the probability, as of late April 2026, that the CME FedWatch Tool assigns to...
Dow futures drop 517 points as Trump orders Strait of Hormuz blockade
American drivers were already paying a national average of roughly $3.60 per gallon for regular gasoline when they got a new reason to worry on...
99,283 US workers laid off across 146 events in 2026 so far — ~973 per day
Between January 1 and April 12, 2026, at least 99,283 American workers received formal notice that their jobs were being eliminated. The losses span 146...
Fed projections still point to just one 0.25% cut in 2026 as tariffs and oil keep inflation sticky
A single quarter-point interest rate cut. That is all the Federal Reserve expects to deliver in 2026, according to projections released after its March 17-18...
OECD warns U.S. inflation could top 4% as energy shock spreads
Americans who lived through the price surges of 2022 may be bracing for a repeat. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development warned in late...
Consumer sentiment sinks to record low as inflation view hits 4.8%
Americans are more pessimistic about the economy than at any point in the 72-year history of the University of Michigan’s consumer survey. The preliminary Index...
March CPI climbs to 3.3% 2-year high as Iran war drives energy spike
Americans paid more for gasoline in March 2026 than in any single month on record, and the shock rippled through nearly every corner of household...
Q4 GDP cut to 0.5% growth, reviving Wall Street stagflation worries
The U.S. economy grew at just 0.5% in the final quarter of 2025, the Bureau of Economic Analysis confirmed in its third and final GDP...
AI investment surge coincides with tech job cuts across sector
In the opening months of 2026, the tech industry is sending two signals at once: record sums of money are flowing into artificial intelligence, and...
CPI rises 0.9% in March as energy prices jump 10.9%, BLS says
Gasoline prices jumped 21.2% in a single month, and that one category alone accounted for roughly three-quarters of the overall Consumer Price Index increase in...
University of Michigan: consumer sentiment falls to record low
A gallon of regular gasoline averaged $4.87 nationally last week, grocery bills keep climbing, and Americans just registered the darkest economic mood in the eight...
Oil tops $100 after U.S. announces Strait of Hormuz blockade
Brent crude blew past $100 a barrel in the last week of April 2026 after the United States announced it would blockade Iranian ports along...
Delta plans to “meaningfully” cut capacity growth amid surging fuel costs
Summer travelers counting on a flood of new Delta Air Lines flights may need to rethink their plans. The carrier is scaling back its warm-weather...