Economy & The Fed
Federal Reserve decisions, inflation data, interest rates, GDP, employment reports, recession indicators, and the broader economic picture.
Latest in Economy & The Fed
Gas hit $4.53 and Iran’s ceasefire expires in 48 hours — Kalshi bettors are now pricing in $5.60 a gallon by summer
Filling up a tank of regular gasoline now costs American drivers an average of $4.53 a gallon, the highest pre-summer price since 2022, according to...
Trump said he’s “losing patience” with Iran — the ceasefire expires Sunday, oil hit $107, and gas is 16 cents from the all-time U.S. record
The national average price of a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline has climbed to roughly $4.85, putting it within about 16 cents of the all-time...
The 30-year Treasury yield just hit 5.08% — the highest since 2007 — and every mortgage, car loan, and student loan in America is tied to that number
When the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield crossed 5.08% in late May 2025, mortgage lenders began repricing rate sheets before the trading day was over. Auto...
Retail spending rose for the third straight month — but strip out gas and the American consumer is barely growing at all
Three months of rising retail sales sound like a vote of confidence from American consumers. Look closer, and the streak has a catch: a growing...
132,000 tech workers have been laid off in 2026 — and the companies cutting them just posted record revenues and doubled their AI budgets
By the end of April 2026, technology companies had eliminated roughly 132,000 jobs, according to Layoffs.fyi, the widely cited tracker founded by Roger Lee. The...
Zero rate cuts are priced in for 2026 — and the new Fed chair who started work today has never voted for one
Kevin Warsh walked into the Eccles Building on May 15, 2026, as the 17th chair of the Federal Reserve. The bond market had already written...
Fed Chair Jerome Powell steps down after 8 years, stays on board
When Jerome Powell hands the Federal Reserve chairmanship to Kevin Warsh on May 15, 2026, he will do something almost none of his predecessors have...
Xi warned Trump that differences over Taiwan could lead to a “clash” — on Day 1 of a summit where traders give 81% odds the tariff truce gets extended
Chinese President Xi Jinping looked across the table at Donald Trump on May 14, 2026, the opening day of their bilateral summit, and delivered a...
Retail sales rose 0.5% in April — but furniture fell 2%, clothing fell 1.5%, and department stores dropped 3.2% because Americans are spending all their money on gas
Furniture sales fell 2%. Clothing dropped 1.5%. Department stores slid 3.2%. And yet the U.S. Census Bureau’s Advance Monthly Sales report for April 2026 (release...
The new Fed chair takes over with inflation at 3.8%, wholesale prices up 6%, and a 30% chance the Fed raises rates instead of cutting them
Kevin Warsh did not get a grace period. The new Federal Reserve chair took the oath on May 15, 2026, the day Jerome Powell’s four-year...
Producer prices for services jumped 1.2% in a single month, the biggest gain since 2022 — that’s the inflation the Fed can’t blame on oil
Wholesale prices spiked in April 2026, and the usual explanation doesn’t apply. It wasn’t oil. It wasn’t gasoline. It wasn’t a drought or a refinery...
The Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as Fed chair 54-45 tonight — the closest vote for a central bank leader in modern American history
Kevin Warsh was confirmed as the 17th chair of the Federal Reserve on the evening of May 13, 2026, surviving a 54-45 Senate vote that...
Trump flew 15 billionaire CEOs to Beijing on Air Force One — the same week wholesale prices jumped 6% and gas hit $4.51 back home
On the morning of May 13, 2026, Air Force One lifted off with President Donald Trump and at least 15 chief executives from some of...
Zero rate cuts are priced in for 2026 — and the man who just became Fed chair has never voted for one
The futures market has made its bet for 2026: no rate cuts at all. Fed-funds futures, as tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, now assign...
Wholesale inflation hit 6% the day after consumer inflation hit 3.8% — the one-two punch economists say means more price increases for everything you buy
A gallon of gas costs more to refine. A pallet of chicken costs more to ship. A contractor’s lumber bill is climbing again. And as...
Oil climbed above $102 WTI for the first time since 2022 — Trump says the Iran ceasefire is on “massive life support”
Oil climbed above $102 WTI for the first time since 2022 — Trump says the Iran ceasefire is on “massive life support” For the first...
Brent crude surged past $108 a barrel today — Saudi Aramco’s CEO says the world is losing 100 million barrels of oil supply every week
Brent crude blew past $108 a barrel on Tuesday, May 27, 2026, hitting its highest level in more than a year as a cascade of...
Traders just priced in a 30% chance the Fed raises interest rates — the first time a hike has been on the table since 2023
For the first time since the Federal Reserve pushed borrowing costs to a two-decade high in the summer of 2023, Wall Street is placing real...
Inflation hit 3.8% in April, the highest in three years — and energy prices drove more than 40% of the increase
A full tank of gas cost American drivers noticeably more in April than it did just a month earlier, and the government’s latest inflation report...
Only 191 ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz in April — down from the usual 3,000 a month — and the blockade is why gas went from $3 to $4.52 in ten weeks
The price on the pump at a Wawa outside Richmond, Virginia, read $2.96 on the last day of February. Ten weeks later, the same station...