Economy & The Fed
Federal Reserve decisions, inflation data, interest rates, GDP, employment reports, recession indicators, and the broader economic picture.
Latest in Economy & The Fed
Fed officials now expect 3.7 percent inflation this year, far above their goal
Federal Reserve officials now expect their preferred inflation gauge to finish 2026 at 3.7%, according to the median projection released alongside the central bank’s September...
The Fed’s September hike lifted its reserve rate to 3.90 percent, effective September 17
Since September 17, the Federal Reserve has been paying banks 3.90% overnight to hold reserves at the central bank, the interest rate on reserve balances...
A one-year Treasury bill paid 4.51% on September 24, up from 4.18% on September 1, as the Fed raised rates
Savers buying a one-year Treasury bill on September 24, 2026, locked in interest of 4.51%, according to Treasury’s daily par yield curve, up from 4.18%...
The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.18% on September 24, up from 4.79% on September 1
The interest rate on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note closed at 5.18% on September 24, 2026, according to the Treasury Department’s daily par yield curve,...
The effective tariff rate reached 6.7 percent in July, nearly triple where it stood in January 2025
The average effective U.S. tariff rate stood at 6.7 percent in July 2026, nearly triple the 2.3 percent rate recorded in January 2025, according to...
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2023, pushing credit card bills higher
The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark lending rate a quarter point on September 16, 2026, lifting the federal funds target to a range of 3.75%...
Compensation costs rose 3.4% over the year through June
Compensation costs for civilian workers rose 3.4 percent over the 12 months ending in June, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Employment Cost Index....
U.S. labor productivity rose 1.4% in the second quarter
U.S. nonfarm business labor productivity rose at a 1.4 percent annualized rate in the second quarter, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in its revised...
Unemployment claims held near 206,000 in the latest weekly report
New applications for unemployment insurance held near 206,000 in the latest federal weekly report. The Department of Labor said the seasonally adjusted advance figure for...
The economy added 162,000 jobs in August, Labor says
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 162,000 in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ September employment report. The same release said the unemployment...
People without a diploma faced 4.7% unemployment in August
People age 25 and older without a high-school diploma faced a 4.7% unemployment rate in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The figure...
Consumer sentiment fell to 47.8, down 13.2% from a year ago
Consumer sentiment fell to a preliminary reading of 47.8 in September, 13.2% below its level a year earlier, according to the University of Michigan. The...
The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.96% after starting the week at 4.80%
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield ended the latest reported week at 4.96%, sixteen basis points above its first trading-day reading of 4.80%. That rise happened...
The Fed meets September 15 with rates unmoved all year, keeping top CDs near 4% and mortgages at 6.71%
The Federal Reserve returns to the table on September 15 and 16 having moved the federal funds rate exactly zero times in 2026, holding its...
A strong 162,000-job August report still leaves information and tech hiring shrinking as companies pour money into AI
The information sector — the corner of the economy that spans computing infrastructure, data processing, publishing and broadcasting — shed 23,000 jobs in August, nearly...
A hotter-than-expected August jobs report makes a September Federal Reserve rate cut less likely, keeping the best CDs near 4.6%
The U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs in August, blowing past Wall Street’s forecast of about 53,000 and marking the strongest monthly gain since March, the...
The July jobs report showed the economy shed 23,000 jobs, with prior months revised down 103,000
The U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, and the government simultaneously erased another 103,000 jobs it had already counted for May and June, the...
The Federal Reserve meets September 15 as forecasters split on holding or hiking, keeping savings and CD rates in flux
The Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting, set for Sept. 15-16, has forecasters split between holding interest rates steady and raising them further — not between...
A federal revision erased 178,000 jobs, revealing a weaker labor market
The labor market was weaker over the past year than the government’s monthly reports showed, according to a preliminary revision the Bureau of Labor Statistics...
Wall Street is now leaning toward a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, and top CDs still pay close to 4%
Traders who spent the summer betting the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates have reversed course, and the futures market is now pricing in the...