The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s daily spot table shows Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, at $113.96 a barrel on September 29. That is one day’s price, and it is no longer the latest reading in the market. Brent stood at $119.97 the session before and had reached $120.92 on September 24. By October 6, a market report put Brent at $98.67 after the Group of Seven announced a release of emergency oil reserves. The distance between those two prices is what anyone watching fuel bills now has to sort out.
Six trading days in the EIA table
The agency’s table lists six trading days, September 22 through September 29, and the Brent spot price moved sharply inside that window. It was $114.89 on September 22, $117.45 on September 23 and $120.92 on September 24, the highest of the six days. It slipped to $116.01 on September 25, rebounded to $119.97 on September 28, and then fell to $113.96 on September 29. That final figure is the lowest in the table, even though it sits well above where Brent traded a week later.
The same EIA spot price table carries U.S. crude, measured at Cushing, Oklahoma, and the swings there were wider. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, was $96.41 on September 22 and fell to $93.38 the next day. It climbed to $95.88 on September 24, dropped to $85.23 on September 25, then jumped to $99.37 on September 28. On September 29 it settled at $96.16. A spot price is what a barrel costs for immediate delivery, so it can move faster than the averages published later.
Fuel buyers feel those swings through products rather than crude. The same EIA table lists New York Harbor ultra-low-sulfur diesel, the wholesale benchmark for diesel, at $4.999 a gallon on September 29, after $4.910 on September 28 and $5.007 on September 22. Anyone who drives a diesel vehicle, runs a delivery business or buys goods that travel by truck is exposed to that product price. The open question for them is whether the late-September spike or the early-October decline is the better guide to the weeks ahead.
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Why Brent was lower by October 6
The drop came with a supply announcement. TheStreet’s October 6 market report says the Group of Seven would “deploy 100 million barrels of reserves over the next four months,” with the first stretch aimed at diesel availability. Brent traded at $98.67 a barrel that day, down 1.64 percent, and U.S. crude at $87.77, down 1.86 percent. Those are market quotes, not EIA spot figures, the EIA’s spot table had not yet posted any October prices.
Shipping data cited in the same report showed that Middle Eastern exporters “managed to surpass pre-war levels for roughly half of September,” a sign that flows were recovering. The report ties the easier tone in oil to reduced worry over supply disruptions from the Iran-U.S. conflict. It also notes that Iranian attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz remain a concern, and that risk is the main reason the price could climb again after any run of calm days.
The EIA’s October Short-Term Energy Outlook, released October 6, puts a number on how long the pressure lasts. The outlook has Brent averaging $96 a barrel for 2026 and $84 for 2027, and it expects Brent to average $105 in the fourth quarter of 2026, $14 higher than the previous month’s forecast. The agency says it assumes oil flows from the Middle East stay constrained through the fourth quarter, even as it expects production and exports from the region to increase. The forecast was finalized October 1 and does not account for later events.
Diesel is where the market is tightest
The EIA names diesel as a separate source of pressure on crude. Its outlook cites “extreme tightness in diesel markets that raises demand for crude oil in order for refiners to meet diesel demand.” East Coast distillate fuel inventories, which include diesel, fell 32 percent below their five-year seasonal average in September, the agency says. It expects them to remain about 20 percent below the 2021-2025 average through winter, which keeps the East Coast exposed even if crude eases.
Retail prices show the squeeze. The EIA’s weekly survey put regular diesel at $6.199 a gallon nationally on October 6, down 18.3 cents from the week before but $2.49 above a year earlier. September’s retail diesel average was $6.29, according to the outlook, which projects $5.19 for the 2026 average and $4.49 for 2027. The outlook’s annual averages cover the whole of each year, so they blend months of higher and lower prices.
Where a driver fills up changes the bill more than the weekly drop does. Diesel averaged $8.082 a gallon in California on October 6 and $5.699 in the Lower Atlantic region, according to the EIA. Crude oil makes up 52 percent of the retail price of regular gasoline, which averaged $4.354 nationally, with refining at 22 percent, distribution and marketing at 15 percent and taxes at 12 percent. A move in Brent therefore reaches the pump only in part, and the rest depends on refining, local taxes and how tight inventories are.
Following fuel prices after the next EIA update
The EIA’s spot table lists October 7 as its next release date, and the table is expected to add the days after September 29 then. That update will show how the sharp fall reported on October 6 compares with the end of September. Retail prices come from a separate weekly survey on the agency’s gasoline and diesel price page, which carries the national average along with regional prices in California, the Gulf Coast and other areas.
The range between $113.96 on September 29 and $98.67 on October 6 is the first comparison to carry forward. If later EIA spot prints move back toward the $113.96 to $120.92 range of the six days listed, the G7 reserve release has not been enough to hold prices down. If they stay near $98, the agency’s $96 average for 2026 and its drop in the 2027 forecast to $84 look more realistic.
The reserve release is spread over four months, and the EIA says East Coast distillate stocks are expected to stay about 20 percent under the five-year norm through winter. That timing leaves a gap between the headline price of Brent and the bill at the pump, and diesel buyers on the East Coast stand closest to it. Whether Brent holds below $100 as Middle East flows recover is the figure the coming EIA spot updates will begin to answer.
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This article was produced with AI assistance and reviewed by The Money Overview’s editorial team.
