“Higher inventory and lengthening days on market give buyers improved negotiating power,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, as the group reported its September existing-home figures. Months of supply reached 4.8, up from 4.5 in September 2025, and the median price of a home sold was $417,500.
Same as August, higher than a year ago
NAR’s September report, released Oct. 13, puts months of supply at 4.8, unchanged from August. The 4.5 in the comparison is the year-ago reading, so the rise is a year-over-year one and not a jump in a single month.
Months of supply measures how long the homes for sale would last at the current pace of sales. Inventory was 1.60 million units, up 1.9% from August and up 4.6% from a year earlier. Sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.99 million, up 1.5% on the month and down 2.2% on the year.
The year-over-year rise therefore has two sources, and both appear in the release. There are more homes on the market than a year ago, and fewer of them are selling. Together they lengthen the time the stock would take to clear, which is all a supply ratio says.
For owners deciding whether to list now or wait this autumn, the report gives a narrower answer than its headline suggests. It describes sales and listings across the country, and a home put up in a given town meets that town’s buyers, not the national median or the national 4.8.
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What Yun said about mortgage rates and buyer leverage
Yun said August and September marked “the two slowest months for home sales this year.” He added that further increases in mortgage rates in recent weeks mean fewer buyers can qualify to purchase a home, which is a statement about who can still bid, not only about how many want to.
Time on market backs up his point about leverage. The median home sat 33 days, up from 31 in August and the same as in September 2025. A two-day rise on the month is small and the yearly figure is flat, so the lengthening he describes is a short-run drift and not yet a reversal.
The Federal Reserve offered no relief on Oct. 28. It held its target range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent on a 10-2 vote, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack preferring a quarter-point hike, and its statement says inflation remains elevated.
Who is buying: first-timers up, cash buyers down
First-time buyers made up 31% of September sales, up from 30% in August and 30% a year earlier. Cash buyers made up 27%, unchanged from August and down from 30% a year ago. A smaller cash share means more purchases that depend on a mortgage, and so on the rates Yun described.
The median existing-home price rose 1.3% to $417,500 from $412,300 a year earlier. A median is the middle sale and not an average, and it covers only homes that sold, so it says nothing about what an unsold listing was asked for or how far asking prices were cut.
New houses ran at a different supply level the same month. The Census Bureau’s new-home report put new single-family supply at 8.4 months, from a separate survey with its own margin of error. Existing homes, the kind most owners 60 and older would be selling, stood at 4.8. The gap between 8.4 and 4.8 is a gap between unsold new construction and homes that owners list, and neither release says it will close soon.
The price a house could fetch and the cost of staying in it
A seller weighing a listing now is comparing a median sale price up 1.3% on the year against buyers who, in Yun’s words, have improved negotiating power. Both can be true at once: prices nationally rose while the time to sell lengthened and the stock of homes grew. A seller in a town with few listings may meet a faster market than the national 33 days, and a seller in a town with many may meet a slower one.
NAR publishes the underlying series on its research and statistics page, which carries existing-home sales and metro, state and county statistics, some of which need a login. Local numbers are the ones that apply to a particular house.
A listing decision is partly a comparison between a market price and a yearly carrying cost, and the September report supplies only the first half. A homeowner who stays pays property tax, insurance and upkeep every year, and none of those bills moves with a national months-of-supply figure.
The numbers say the existing-home market is looser than a year ago and no tighter than August: 4.8 months against 4.5 and 4.8. They do not say whether a given seller should wait. Yun’s own framing was about buyers gaining room, not about prices falling.
NAR’s next monthly report will show whether the mortgage rate increases Yun pointed to pull sales lower again, or whether September’s 1.5% gain was the start of a recovery. Until then, a national ratio of 4.8 is a backdrop for a listing decision and not a forecast for any one sale price.
Weighing whether to sell this fall?
A seller who lists on the strength of a national supply ratio can still be surprised by two numbers the ratio never touches: the yearly bill the house carries and the tax or equity result of selling it. For homeowners over 60, those often decide the question more than 4.8 months does.
Cut Your House Costs picks up where the market statistic stops, with the money question of what the house costs and is worth. It sets out home equity options compared, from a HELOC to a reverse mortgage, and a lower home insurance bill by shopping and asking for every discount.
It also holds the home-cost audit worksheet and a plain section on selling without the tax, up to $250,000 of profit or $500,000 for a couple.
Weigh a sale against staying: get the equity options and home-cost audit worksheet →
This article was produced with AI assistance and edited for accuracy against the sources linked above.
