A gallon of regular unleaded now costs $4.39 at the national average, according to AAA’s daily fuel gauge. That is 47% higher than the $2.81 average the U.S. Energy Information Administration recorded in February 2026, before military operations involving Iran began choking oil flows through the Persian Gulf. And the head of America’s largest oil company says the pain is not over. ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods, speaking on the company’s first-quarter 2026 earnings call in late April, told investors that “there’s more to come” when it comes to energy price volatility, citing persistent supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz.
For the tens of millions of Americans who depend on a car to get to work, the math is punishing. A 15-gallon fill-up that cost about $42 in February now runs close to $66. A two-car household filling up once a week is spending roughly $200 more per month on fuel alone, money that used to go toward groceries, savings, or a summer road trip.
How prices moved this fast
The EIA’s monthly retail price series traces the acceleration. Regular gasoline averaged $2.809 per gallon in February, climbed to $3.638 in March, and reached $4.103 in April. That three-month jump of nearly $1.30 per gallon rivals the speed of the 2022 price shock that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when the national average surged from about $3.44 in late February to $4.33 by mid-March, according to EIA weekly data.
The gap between the EIA’s April monthly average and the current $4.39 AAA reading suggests the steepest gains came in the final days of April or the opening week of May 2026, a stretch that coincided with reports of intensified naval activity near the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply transits that narrow waterway every day. Brent crude, the global benchmark, has pushed above $105 a barrel after trading near $74 in early February, according to EIA spot price data.
The increase is not confined to one region. California, where state taxes and clean-fuel mandates already push prices well above the national average, has seen regular unleaded top $5.50 at many stations. But even traditionally cheaper markets along the Gulf Coast and across the Midwest have recorded jumps of $1 or more per gallon since February, according to EIA regional breakdowns.
What Exxon’s CEO actually said
Woods made his remarks during ExxonMobil’s Q1 2026 earnings call, which was webcast and is accessible through the company’s investor relations page. He acknowledged that the company’s upstream operations were performing well but cautioned that “the geopolitical environment creates risks that the market is still pricing in.” His warning that “there’s more to come” referred broadly to volatility across energy markets, not exclusively to retail gasoline, though the remark has been widely read as a signal that pump prices have further room to climb.
Exxon posted strong first-quarter earnings, lifted by higher crude prices. That dynamic has drawn sharp attention from Capitol Hill. Several members of Congress have called for hearings on oil-company profits during the conflict, reprising the political battles of 2022, when record earnings at major producers landed alongside record prices at the pump.
Why the timing stings
The surge is arriving just as summer driving season kicks off. AAA projected before the conflict that more than 44 million Americans would travel by car over Memorial Day weekend alone. Those plans have not vanished, but the cost of carrying them out has changed fast. A family driving 500 miles round trip in a vehicle averaging 25 miles per gallon now spends about $88 on fuel, up from $56 at February prices.
Businesses that burn fuel to operate are absorbing the hit, too. Delivery fleets, construction contractors, and agricultural operations all face higher diesel and gasoline bills that either eat into margins or get passed along to customers. Diesel, which powers most freight trucks, has followed a similar arc; the EIA’s most recent weekly release put the national average above $5.00 per gallon.
Those costs ripple outward. The Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks energy as a major component of the Consumer Price Index, and the March and April CPI reports already reflected climbing fuel prices. Economists at JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have revised their 2026 inflation forecasts upward in recent weeks, pointing to energy as the primary driver.
What Washington is doing, and not doing
The Trump administration has signaled it is weighing a release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the same tool used in 2022 to cushion the Russia-Ukraine price shock. But the SPR currently holds roughly 370 million barrels, down from over 600 million before the 2022 drawdowns, which limits the scale of any new release. White House officials have also pressed OPEC+ members, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, to ramp up production to offset lost Iranian and disrupted Gulf barrels. So far, those conversations have not produced a public commitment to higher output.
On Capitol Hill, proposals range from a temporary suspension of the 18.4-cent-per-gallon federal gasoline tax to windfall-profit levies on oil companies. Neither idea has advanced to a floor vote. Consumer advocates have argued that a gas-tax holiday would deliver modest relief but could also stoke demand and partially cancel out the intended savings, the same critique that surfaced when similar proposals were floated in 2022.
Meanwhile, U.S. domestic crude production remains near record levels, above 13 million barrels per day according to EIA data. But production increases take months to translate into lower pump prices, and the current disruption is centered on global supply routes rather than domestic output.
Where prices go from here
Forecasting gasoline prices during an active military conflict is a guessing game with real stakes. Analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights have outlined scenarios ranging from a stabilization near $4.50 if diplomatic channels reopen, to a spike above $5.50 if the conflict escalates to direct strikes on oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia or the UAE. The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, updated monthly, has not yet published a scenario specifically tied to a prolonged Iran conflict; its next release is expected in early June 2026.
Refinery capacity adds another layer of uncertainty. U.S. refineries typically run near full capacity heading into summer, and any unplanned outage during a period of elevated crude costs could amplify retail price spikes. The EIA’s weekly petroleum status report, which tracks refinery utilization and gasoline inventories, will be one of the most closely watched datasets through June.
Consumer behavior could also shift the equation. If prices hold above $4.50 through June, historical patterns suggest some drivers will consolidate trips, carpool, or delay discretionary travel. Electric vehicle sales, which have grown steadily over the past two years, could see another bump as sticker shock at the pump pushes more buyers to consider alternatives. But the United States remains overwhelmingly car-dependent, and for most commuters, meaningfully cutting fuel consumption is not something that happens overnight.
What drivers are already paying for a distant war
Set aside the forecasts and the political maneuvering, and the EIA’s own numbers tell a story that needs no spin. Gasoline went from $2.81 to above $4.10 in two months, a pace that translates directly into tighter household budgets, higher business costs, and renewed inflation pressure. The $4.39 reading from AAA, while not yet confirmed in the EIA’s lagging monthly dataset, is consistent with the trajectory and will likely be validated in the agency’s next weekly update.
Whether the peak is $4.39 or something considerably higher depends on decisions being made in war rooms, on trading floors, and around OPEC+ conference tables that no single data point can predict. What the data can confirm is that American drivers are already shouldering a steep and measurable cost for a conflict thousands of miles from the nearest U.S. gas station. And the CEO of the country’s largest oil company just told them to brace for more.
