Minnesota expects about 440,000 people who receive SNAP to get about $5 a month less on average in 2027 than they would have without a change in the 2025 federal reconciliation law. The state says the effect on benefit amounts starts October 1, 2027.
The figure comes from the Minnesota Department of Children, Youth, and Families, which publishes it on its page on the federal law’s effects. It is the state’s projection, and it is measured against what benefits would have been, not against what households receive today.
What a cost-neutral Thrifty Food Plan does to a monthly amount
SNAP amounts rest on a budget called the Thrifty Food Plan. The U.S. Department of Agriculture describes it as a low-cost, nutritious diet of foods and beverages consumed at home, and says it is used to calculate SNAP benefit amounts.
The 2025 law requires that all future re-evaluations of the plan be cost neutral. Benefit increases are tied to changes in the Consumer Price Index instead of to actual food costs, and the state’s page says USDA may re-evaluate the plan no earlier than October 1, 2027.
The result is not a cut on a date. It is a slower climb, and the state expects the gap to average about $5 a month for the 440,000 Minnesotans in 2027. The state’s page adds that benefits lose purchasing power over time and that local retailers may see reduced demand. The provision was enacted October 1, 2025.
That raises the question most households have: how much less will theirs be? The state gives only the average, so a single person and a family of four cannot read their own number from it. What every household can do now is note what it receives and keep its recertification and reporting dates, because a missed date costs far more than $5.
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How $5 compares with today’s maximums
USDA’s cost-of-living page, updated October 13, 2026, lists the fiscal 2027 maximum monthly allotments in the 48 states and Washington, D.C. They are $306 for one person, $562 for two, $808 for three and $1,023 for four, effective October 1, 2026 through September 30, 2027.
USDA says maximum allotments are calculated every June from the cost of the plan for a four-person household, with an adjustment for economies of scale. Against the $306 maximum for one person, $5 is about 1.6 percent. Against $1,023 for a family of four, it is about half a percent.
Those percentages are simple arithmetic on the state’s average, not a state estimate. Households that receive less than the maximum, and households whose size or income differs from the average, will see a different dollar change.
The state costs that arrive first
The $5 projection is one of several federal changes Minnesota tallied. The earliest is the administrative cost share. Starting October 1, 2026, federal reimbursement for administering SNAP drops from 50 percent to 25 percent, which the state puts at a loss of $37 million a year, plus $2.1 million for outreach.
A second change begins October 1, 2027. States must pay up to 15 percent of SNAP benefit costs, depending on their payment error rate in earlier years. If Minnesota had to cover 15 percent, the state estimates the cost at about $105 million in state fiscal year 2028 and $145 million in 2029, with half borne by counties under state law.
The same page lists two smaller items: about 9,000 fewer Minnesotans eligible in an average month because of the noncitizen rules that took effect March 1, 2026, and the loss of $9.5 million a year in federal SNAP-Ed funding for nutrition education.
Work rules are already in effect
Unlike the 2027 benefit change, the work rules for adults through age 64 have been in force since November 1, 2025. The state’s time-limited rules page sets the requirement at 20 hours a week, or 80 hours a month, for people without a dependent under 14.
The tracker also says the same federal law removed work-rule exemptions for veterans and for youth leaving foster care, and added one for American Indians, Alaska Natives, Urban Indians and California Indians. It projects that roughly a third of the newly covered adults will eventually lose benefits.
A state notice says a fixed 36-month period began January 1, 2026, and runs through December 31, 2028. For households that include an adult in that group, a missed month matters long before any 2027 amount change.
What to put on the calendar before October 2027
The state says the Thrifty Food Plan change affects benefit amounts starting October 1, 2027, the earliest date USDA is allowed to re-evaluate the plan. Any dollar change for a single household would show up in the monthly amount from that point, and the state has not published a household-level figure.
That is nearly a year of lead time. The date also gives time to line up the paperwork that decides whether a benefit continues at all: recertification, reporting changes in income or household size, and exemption proof for anyone in the work-rule age group.
How much less will a Minnesota SNAP household see in 2027?
The average is $5 a month, and the amount is still an estimate. A missed renewal or an unreported change is a loss that arrives all at once, and it can erase a full month of benefits.
The state’s number is a question about size, so the related job is keeping the benefit steady while the amounts move. The SNAP & Medicaid Renewal Organizer includes 51 state packs and a renewal and reporting calendar, so Minnesota’s dates sit in one place.
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This article was produced with AI assistance and edited for accuracy against the sources linked above.
