The monthly payment on the typical American home rose 6.7 percent over the past year, nearly seven times as fast as the home’s value, Zillow’s September report shows. The company’s index puts that typical home at $366,913, up 1 percent from a year earlier and down 0.5 percent from August. The $1,922 payment assumes a 20 percent down payment and leaves out taxes and insurance. Rates are the difference between the two lines: the 30-year rate ended September at 7.28 percent, the highest since November 2023, according to Freddie Mac.
For an owner asking what a house is worth now, the national figure is a starting point at best. Zillow’s index tracks the typical home across the country, and its metro table shows how far individual markets stray from it. Values in Chicago rose 5.1 percent over the year, to a typical $358,074, while Austin values fell 3.9 percent, to $416,134. A homeowner in either city would find the national 1 percent a poor description of the local market.
The next official check on home prices arrives October 27, when the Federal Housing Finance Agency publishes its monthly index covering data through August.
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Chicago up 5.1 percent, Austin down 3.9 percent
Zillow’s September market report ranks Chicago first among large metros for yearly value growth at 5.1 percent, ahead of Hartford at 5.0 percent, Milwaukee at 4.9 percent, New York at 4.8 percent and Cleveland at 3.8 percent. All five are in the Midwest or Northeast. New York’s typical home value was $733,217, so a 4.8 percent gain there is a far larger dollar move than the same percentage in Cleveland or Milwaukee.
Three of the five biggest declines were in Texas. Austin led at 3.9 percent, followed by Las Vegas at 2.7 percent, Seattle at 2.2 percent, and Dallas and San Antonio at 1.9 percent each. Houston also fell 1.8 percent, to a typical $303,039. Seattle’s typical home, at $721,838, lost 1.1 percent in September alone, the fastest one-month drop among the metros Zillow’s release highlights.
The spread in dollars is wider than the spread in percentages. San Jose’s typical value is $1,535,288, down 0.2 percent over the year, while Houston’s is $303,039. Denver’s typical home, at $557,532, lost 1.7 percent, while Los Angeles, at $952,830, gained 1.3 percent. Few metros sit near the national typical value of $366,913: Dallas, at $359,178, and Chicago, at $358,074, are the closest of those Zillow lists. Most owners live in a market whose typical home is worth far more or far less than the national figure, which is why the metro tables carry more information than the headline number.
Pending sales fall 8.5 percent
Newly pending sales, the contracts signed in a month, fell 8.5 percent from a year earlier and 11.2 percent from August, Zillow said in its release. The closed-sales estimate was 319,346, down 2.5 percent from a year earlier and down 5.6 percent from August, and Zillow says the figure will be revised mid-month. Homes took 29 days to go pending, two days longer than a year earlier. Chief economist Mischa Fisher said, “The for-sale market’s slowdown was predictable given where mortgage rates currently stand.”
The payment is where the rate shows up. With a 20 percent down payment, the loan on a $366,913 home is about $293,500. At $1,922 and up 6.7 percent, the typical payment is about $120 a month higher than a year earlier, while the home itself gained roughly $3,600. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.40 percent on October 8, above the 7.28 percent Zillow cites for the end of September and above the 6.30 percent of a year earlier.
Thin listings and spreading price cuts
Supply is not surging to fill the gap. Zillow counted 1.39 million homes for sale nationwide, up 2.5 percent from a year earlier but down 1.5 percent from August. New listings totaled 343,311, up 0.4 percent on the year and down 3.9 percent on the month, and sit 11.9 percent below the pre-pandemic baseline. A price cut was on 27.4 percent of listings, up from 26.2 percent a year earlier.
The two supply lines point in different directions, and the price-cut share shows which one sellers are feeling. Listings priced down rose 1.2 percentage points in a year, from 26.2 percent to 27.4 percent, even though new listings sit 11.9 percent below the pre-pandemic baseline. Sellers are not flooding the market, yet more of those who list are lowering the ask, which fits a market in which buyers are waiting on rates rather than competing over scarce homes.
Putting a dollar figure on one house’s equity
A typical value is not an appraisal. The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s House Price Index offers a second reading, built from repeat mortgage transactions on the same properties and published for the nation, states and metro areas. The agency’s schedule lists the next monthly index for October 27, covering data through August, with the quarterly index due November 24.
Equity moves with value in plain arithmetic. On a home worth the typical $366,913, one percentage point of value is about $3,669, while a 5.1 percent gain on Chicago’s typical $358,074 is worth roughly $17,000 over the year. A 3.9 percent drop on Austin’s $416,134 is a loss of about $16,000. The same national 1 percent produces very different results depending on the metro.
Zillow calls newly pending sales a forward-looking indicator of future closed sales, and they fell 8.5 percent as mortgage rates reached their highest level since November 2023. Fisher said Zillow expects sales to stay below last year’s level through the fourth quarter. Home values held up in September, but the contracts that become October and November sales did not, and that is the number to watch in Zillow’s next report.
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This article was prepared with AI assistance from cited public sources and reviewed before publication.
