A bag of groceries that cost $100 before the pandemic now runs about $130. American shoppers do not need a chart to know that, but a national survey puts a number on the frustration: 62% of respondents told Purdue University’s Consumer Food Insights survey that they spent more on groceries over the course of 2025 than they did the year before.
The survey, which polls a nationally representative sample on grocery spending and food-related behavior, asked consumers whether their spending increased, decreased, or stayed the same. A clear majority said it went up. Many reported coping by switching to store brands, shopping at discount retailers, or simply buying less. (The exact sample size has not been disclosed in the publicly available summary.)
That finding collides with federal data showing grocery inflation has cooled considerably from its worst stretch. The gap between what shoppers feel at checkout and what price indexes measure points to a stubborn reality: years of compounding increases have permanently reset the cost of a cart of staples, and slower inflation does not undo that.
What the federal data actually shows
The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which tracks prices at thousands of retail outlets nationwide, reported that food-at-home prices rose 2.2% year over year through May 2025, the most recent federal food-price reading available as of spring 2026. That rate sits below the broader food category increase of 2.9% and below overall consumer price growth of 2.4%.
On its own, 2.2% looks manageable. But it lands on a baseline that surged between early 2020 and late 2023. Eggs, ground beef, bread, and dairy all cost substantially more than they did five years ago, and none of those prices have retreated to pre-pandemic levels.
A Pew Research Center analysis of BLS Consumer Price Index data found that grocery prices had risen roughly 25% cumulatively since January 2020. That stacking effect is the core of the problem: even with annual inflation cooling, households are navigating a permanently higher price floor for basic staples, not a temporary spike that will reverse.
Why shoppers feel it more than the numbers suggest
The Purdue survey found that households adjusted throughout 2025. Respondents reported shifting to private-label products, visiting discount chains more often, and cutting back on higher-priced items. The December wave of the survey captured self-reported weekly spending figures that reflected those trade-downs, yet a clear majority still said their overall grocery bills grew. (The publicly available summary does not break out exact dollar amounts for average weekly spending.)
Part of the explanation is simple math. Consider a family spending $250 a week on groceries. That household was already paying far more per week than it did in 2020. Another 2.2% adds roughly $5.50 a week, or close to $290 over a full year, on top of increases that have already accumulated. At the checkout line, “modest” inflation does not feel modest when it compounds on a baseline that jumped 25%.
Part of it is also psychological. Behavioral research has consistently found that people overestimate price increases on items they buy frequently. Shoppers encounter egg and milk prices multiple times a month, and those repeated exposures amplify the sense that everything is getting more expensive. That pattern does not mean the frustration is imaginary. It means the 62% figure captures both real cost increases and the emotional toll of watching prices climb, week after week, for years.
Wages have grown, but not enough to close the gap
One piece of context that often gets lost in the grocery debate: wages have not stood still. Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows that average hourly earnings for private-sector workers rose over the same period, and for many lower-wage workers, gains were significant. But for a large share of households, particularly those on fixed incomes, in part-time work, or in regions where wage growth lagged the national average, pay increases have not kept pace with the cumulative 25% jump in grocery costs. The result is that even workers who received raises can feel like they are losing ground at the supermarket.
Grocery prices as a political flashpoint
Food costs have become a charged political issue, and polling reflects the divide. A Washington Post survey from late 2025 found that a majority of Americans blamed former President Trump for rising prices, with sharp splits along party lines. Democrats and independents reported higher rates of perceived grocery spending increases than Republicans did. (The Post’s publicly available summary did not include a single topline percentage for the blame question, making it difficult to cite a precise share.)
Some of those partisan gaps likely reflect genuine economic differences. Where people live, what stores are available, and local cost-of-living pressures all vary by region and correlate loosely with political geography. But academic research also shows that partisanship shapes how people evaluate economic conditions: voters whose preferred party holds power tend to rate the economy more favorably, regardless of objective indicators. Both dynamics appear to be at work, and the available data does not cleanly separate one from the other.
Gaps in the data
Several blind spots make it hard to draw a complete picture. The 62% figure is self-reported, meaning it captures perception rather than verified household budgets. A family that added a member, switched to organic products, or started buying more prepared meals would report higher spending even if shelf prices held steady. No publicly available breakdown isolates how much of the reported increase stems from higher unit prices versus changes in purchasing habits.
Regional variation is another gap. Both the BLS data and the Purdue survey report national aggregates. Grocery costs differ sharply by geography: a shopper in rural Mississippi and a shopper in Brooklyn face different shelf prices, different store options, and different transportation costs to reach those stores. Without regional or income-tier breakdowns, it is difficult to say which households are absorbing the largest share of the burden.
Looking ahead, the Purdue survey includes consumer expectations for 2026, but those are sentiment-based forecasts, not econometric projections. Whether grocery inflation accelerates, holds steady, or eases will depend on global trade policy, energy costs, and weather patterns affecting crop yields. The ongoing impact of tariffs on imported food products adds another layer of unpredictability that household surveys cannot capture.
Where that leaves families heading into summer 2026
The practical reality is straightforward, even if the data is complicated. Annual grocery inflation has slowed significantly from the peaks of 2022 and 2023, but prices have not fallen back and almost certainly will not. The BLS numbers confirm that groceries cost more. The Purdue survey confirms that people feel it. And the cumulative math confirms that even small annual increases keep compounding on a baseline that already jumped sharply.
Households that feel squeezed are not imagining a problem that statistics deny. They are reacting to the accumulated cost of several years of above-normal inflation, layered on top of wage growth that, for many workers, has not fully kept pace. The strategies shoppers have adopted, from switching to store brands to hunting for deals at discount grocers, are rational responses to a price environment that has shifted and shows no sign of shifting back.
For millions of Americans heading into summer, the question is not whether groceries cost more. It is whether the coping strategies they have already adopted will be enough to keep their household budgets intact through the rest of the year.
