President Trump signed an executive order on October 16 that carries out the new sanctions law aimed at Russia and Iran, then switched off its most expensive feature for now. The White House says the order sets import duties of 500 percent on Russian goods and 100 percent on goods from certain other countries, and then waives every one of them. For households, that means the tariff threat is on paper and nothing in the order is charged at the border today.
The order, titled Implementing the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, says the president signed the underlying law on September 18, 2026. It adds that he has certified to Congress that waiving the measures is in the national interest.
Three duty increases, then one sentence that cancels them
Section 2 of the order raises the duty rate on goods from the Russian Federation by 500 percent. A second increase of 100 percent applies to goods from the five largest importers of Russian-origin crude oil and natural gas, but only if the country knowingly makes new purchases on or after October 18, 2026. A third 100 percent increase targets the five countries that most facilitate evasion of Russian oil sanctions.
All three stack on top of existing duties, including those under the Tariff Act of 1930 and sections 122, 201, 301 and 232 of other trade laws. Then Section 4 waives the application of “any duties provided for in sections 112 and 113” of the law “or this order,” according to the White House text.
For households, the open question is whether any of those duties could reach prices on imported goods, and the answer today is no. The order does not mention consumer prices, it names no countries, and the waiver means no increase applies unless that decision is reversed.
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The same section waives much of the law’s sanctions machinery, not only its tariffs. It covers the restrictions in section 102(d) and a long list of other sections, while leaving in place the Russia sanctions measures that existed under a national emergency continued in March 2026.
How long the waiver lasts
The order sets no end date. It says every waiver stays in effect until the president, or the secretary of state in consultation with the Treasury secretary and the U.S. trade representative, determines that further action is appropriate.
The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative has a job in the meantime. The order tells it to monitor purchases of Russian crude oil and gas, track who is facilitating sanctions evasion, and report promptly if anything calls for further action, including changes to the waivers. It also directs the office to identify which countries make the top five facilitators list.
What the law itself would allow
The order is narrower than the statute it implements. According to the law firm Debevoise, the act codifies and expands Russia sanctions, mandates blocking sanctions on Sberbank, VTB Bank and Gazprombank, and prohibits exports of U.S.-produced energy products to Russia starting October 18, 2026. It also extends the Iran Sanctions Act by five years, to 2031.
On tariffs, King & Spalding says the act directs the president to impose duties of up to 500 percent on Russian goods and up to 100 percent on goods from countries that meet either of two oil tests. A top natural gas purchaser can be exempt if Russian gas made up under 15 percent of Russia’s total gas exports and it has taken significant steps to cut back. That exception does not reach crude oil buyers or sanctions-evasion facilitators.
The firm adds that the trade representative must reassess the top-five list every 180 days. A country that drops off one list could face different treatment in the next round, which leaves the exposure moving even while the waiver holds.
Which countries could end up on the list
Neither the statute nor the order names the countries. The law firm Akin Gump say public trade data point to China and India as the two most likely to be covered, and note that the act does not say how facilitation is to be measured. That leaves the administration free to reach different conclusions than outside analysts.
The firm also calls the president’s national-interest waiver a very broad standard, and says the possibility that tariffs are used as negotiating leverage means rates and country lists may change. The firm says the duties would cover all goods from an in-scope country.
The order says a change to the waivers would rest with the president or the secretary of state, which makes that decision the trigger for any price effect.
What to watch for the household budget
Three developments would signal that the tariffs are real. One is a published list of countries from the trade representative. Another is a determination that ends or narrows the waiver. The third is a purchase on or after October 18 that the administration calls knowing.
Until one of those happens, the order is best read as a framework. It sets rates, assigns agencies and leaves the decision to apply them with the same office that signed it.
Planning ahead for a tariff waiver that could end?
A waiver that can end on one decision leaves households guessing about whether prices on imported goods could rise. Budgets built on a fixed income feel a price change first, and the help programs that soften it often have to be applied for ahead of time.
The story’s money question is about prices, and The Benefits Checklist finishes a related job. It scans 11 benefit programs retirees most often miss, shows the 2026 income limits for each, and includes a 50-state phone directory and a printable application tracker that comes with the download.
See the Benefits Checklist for lining up household help before prices move →
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This article was produced with AI assistance and edited for accuracy against the sources linked above.
