Economy & The Fed
Federal Reserve decisions, inflation data, interest rates, GDP, employment reports, recession indicators, and the broader economic picture.
Latest in Economy & The Fed
Treasury yields surged after the Fed hinted at a hike, lifting borrowing costs again
Homeowners weighing whether to refinance and prospective buyers shopping for mortgages face a sharper cost squeeze after Federal Reserve officials signaled they remain open to...
Savers are the rare winners from the Fed’s hold, with top yields still above 4%
Savers holding cash in high-yield deposit accounts woke up on June 17, 2026, to a familiar but favorable reality: the Federal Reserve held rates steady...
Forget a summer rate cut: some Fed officials now want a hike before year’s end
Several Federal Reserve officials now project at least one interest-rate increase before the end of 2026, a sharp reversal from the summer rate cut that...
The S&P 500 fell more than 1% as the Fed dashed hopes for lower rates
Investors holding U.S. equities lost ground on June 17, 2026, after the Federal Reserve signaled it is in no rush to cut interest rates. The...
The Dow set a record Wednesday morning, then shed 507 points after the Fed’s hawkish turn
Investors holding retirement accounts and stock portfolios watched the Dow Jones Industrial Average swing from a fresh all-time high to a 507.12-point loss in a...
The U.S. and Iran will sign a war-ending deal in Switzerland Friday — the reason oil, gas, and mortgage rates are all sliding
American drivers, homeowners, and energy traders are all watching the same calendar date: Friday, June 19, 2026, when U.S. and Iranian officials are expected to...
Oil has dropped about 20% from its 2026 peak since the U.S.-Iran deal, easing the pressure that pushed gas to $4.55 in May
American drivers who watched gasoline prices climb to roughly $4.55 a gallon in May are now seeing the first signs of relief. Oil prices have...
Consumer confidence rebounded in June from a record low but remains 19% below a year ago, with households still expecting 4.6% inflation
American households pulled back from the deepest pessimism on record in June 2026, but the recovery barely dented a year-long slide in economic confidence. The...
The Mega Millions jackpot has rolled to $413 million for Friday night’s drawing, with a $182.6 million cash option
No one matched all six numbers in Tuesday’s Mega Millions drawing, pushing the jackpot to an estimated $413 million for Friday night’s game. The cash...
Core inflation held at a milder 2.9% in May, even as the overall rate hit a three-year high
American households paid 4.2 percent more for everyday goods and services in May 2026 than they did a year earlier, the steepest annual increase in...
Inflation climbed to 4.2% in May, its fastest pace in three years, with energy alone driving more than half of the monthly increase
American households already stretched by grocery and housing costs absorbed another blow when consumer prices jumped 0.5 percent in May on a seasonally adjusted basis,...
AI was the top reason for American layoffs for the third straight month — 38,579 of May’s 97,006 announced job cuts
Nearly 40,000 American workers learned in May that artificial intelligence was the stated reason their jobs were being eliminated, extending a streak that has now...
Hiring beat forecasts in May and unemployment held at 4.3%
Private employers added 122,000 jobs in May while the official unemployment rate held at 4.3 percent, signaling a labor market that is cooling without cracking....
Markets now price in no Fed rate cuts for the rest of 2026
Borrowers hoping for relief on mortgage rates, auto loans, or business credit lines will have to wait longer than almost anyone expected. Futures markets tied...
A surprise 172,000 May jobs just raised the odds of a Fed rate hike this year to 57% — keeping mortgage and credit-card rates high
American borrowers hoping for relief on their mortgage payments and credit-card bills will have to wait longer. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total...
Brent crude jumped 2.5% Tuesday to $98.47 — Iran’s foreign ministry now says vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz “will have costs” as part of any ceasefire deal
Iran is no longer just threatening to weaponize the Strait of Hormuz. It is billing for passage. Brent crude settled at $98.47 a barrel on...
80% of companies that adopted AI cut jobs this year — and a new study finds the layoffs haven’t actually boosted profits at most of them
Companies rushed to cut headcount after rolling out artificial intelligence tools. For most of them, the payoff never arrived. The headline claim that 80% of...
One year after Moody’s stripped the U.S. of its last AAA rating, the 30-year Treasury yield just hit 5.14% — the number that sets the floor under every mortgage
The 30-year Treasury yield crossed 5.14% in late May 2025, a level not seen since before the 2008 financial crisis. It arrived almost to the...
Brent crude hit $114 this week, the highest of the entire Iran war — after the U.S. sank six Iranian boats and the UAE came under drone attack
Brent crude hit $114 a barrel on May 19, 2026, its highest price since the Iran conflict began. The spike followed two shocks in rapid...
The Fed meets June 17 with markets betting 98% it does nothing — meaning your 6.5% mortgage and 21.5% credit card rate are locked in deep into 2026
Put 10 percent down on a $400,000 house today and the 30-year fixed principal-and-interest payment runs about $2,270 a month. The same loan at the...