Economy & The Fed
Federal Reserve decisions, inflation data, interest rates, GDP, employment reports, recession indicators, and the broader economic picture.
Latest in Economy & The Fed
Consumer sentiment just crashed to the lowest level in recorded history — and gas hit $4.55 the same week the president said prices “came down very substantially”
Americans have not felt this grim about the economy since the University of Michigan began asking them in the 1950s. The university’s consumer sentiment index,...
Oil crashed 15% on a reported Iran peace deal — gas is still $4.50 and the Strait of Hormuz is still closed
By energy desk staff | May 5, 2026 Brent crude dropped roughly 15% in a single week after reports of a diplomatic breakthrough between Washington...
Kevin Warsh’s Fed chair vote hits the Senate floor May 11 — four days before Powell’s term expires — and it was the first fully partisan committee vote for a Fed chair in history
No Federal Reserve chair nominee has ever reached the Senate floor on a purely partisan vote. Kevin Warsh is about to be the first. On...
Oil plunged 15% to $88 a barrel on Iran deal hopes — then bounced back above $100 because the Strait of Hormuz is still closed
On April 17, Brent crude collapsed roughly 15 percent in a single session, dropping to about $88.90 a barrel after reports circulated that a diplomatic...
Oil crashed 15% in a single session after Axios reported a 14-point deal to end the Iran war — but gas is still $4.50 and the Strait of Hormuz is still closed
On Tuesday, May 19, 2026, energy markets did something they had not done since the early weeks of the Iran conflict: they collapsed on hope....
Moody’s says sustained $125 oil triggers a global recession — Brent closed at $112, just $13 away
Oil is $13 away from the price that Moody’s Analytics says would push the global economy into recession, and the gap is closing fast. Brent...
Spirit Airlines has been dead for 3 days — fares already jumped 23% on every route it used to fly
On May 2, 2026, Spirit Airlines told the world it was done. Three days later, a bankruptcy judge agreed. Now, anyone searching for a cheap...
Kevin Warsh’s Fed chair vote could be the most partisan in history — and it’s happening 4 days before Powell’s term expires
Every Republican voted yes. Every Democrat voted no. And just like that, on April 29, 2026, Kevin Warsh became the first Federal Reserve chair nominee...
Trump paused “Project Freedom” after one day — 23,000 sailors are still stranded in the Persian Gulf, and gas just hit $4.48
On the morning of May 27, 2026, the U.S. Navy began escorting commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz under an operation the White House...
Gold dropped 1.4% after Trump’s “Project Freedom” announcement — but oil surged 6% the same day, which means the inflation trade isn’t going anywhere
President Donald Trump’s naval escort mission through the Strait of Hormuz launched with a bold name and a messy first week. On the day the...
Moody’s says sustained $125 oil triggers a global recession — Brent just hit $114, and the S&P 500 is still sitting near an all-time high
The S&P 500 pushed to a fresh record in late May 2026, buoyed by a run of first-quarter earnings that gave Wall Street little reason...
Zero rate cuts are priced in for the rest of 2026 — and the man about to become Fed chair says fighting inflation matters more than pleasing the White House
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.76% for the week ending May 22, 2026, according to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Credit card...
The “K-shaped economy” is back in the data — more Americans are either superprime (780+ credit score) or subprime (below 600), and the middle is hollowing out
Open two credit card offers side by side and the American economy splits in half. One envelope promises a $750 sign-up bonus, airport lounge access,...
Exxon’s CEO says “more to come” on oil price spikes — while Exxon and Chevron both reported profits down 45% and 36% because their own hedges backfired
ExxonMobil and Chevron, the two largest publicly traded oil companies in the United States, reported first-quarter 2026 earnings in early May that stunned Wall Street:...
Jobless claims fell to 189,000 — the lowest since 1969 — while 169,000 workers have received WARN Act layoff notices this year
A number not seen in more than half a century The last time weekly unemployment filings were this low, Neil Armstrong had been on the...
Spirit Airlines canceled every flight and shut down today — 17,000 workers lost their jobs because jet fuel hit $4.51 a gallon
Spirit Airlines did not slowly fade. On May 2, 2026, the budget carrier canceled every scheduled flight, shut down its customer service lines, and told...
The Fed held rates for the third straight meeting with the most dissents since 1992 — and zero rate cuts are now priced in for all of 2026
Four Federal Reserve officials broke ranks at the April 29 policy meeting, producing the largest number of dissents at a single FOMC gathering since September...
Oil dropped 3% to $101 after Iran sent a new peace proposal through Pakistan — but Trump rejected it and said there will be no “early” end to the war
Brent crude fell 3% to $101 a barrel on May 1, 2026, after a brief window of diplomacy between the United States and Iran slammed...
84% of S&P 500 companies beat earnings estimates this quarter — and the Fed still can’t cut rates because inflation just hit 3.5%
Corporate America just posted one of its strongest earnings seasons in recent memory, and it changes nothing about the cost of your mortgage. Roughly 84%...
Jerome Powell just chaired his last Fed meeting — rates held steady, he called Trump’s attacks “unprecedented,” and Kevin Warsh starts in 13 days
Jerome Powell walked into his final Federal Reserve press conference in late April 2026 and did something no outgoing Fed chair has done in the...