Economy & The Fed
Federal Reserve decisions, inflation data, interest rates, GDP, employment reports, recession indicators, and the broader economic picture.
Latest in Economy & The Fed
Zero rate cuts are priced in for 2026 — and the new Fed chair who started work today has never voted for one
Kevin Warsh walked into the Eccles Building on May 15, 2026, as the 17th chair of the Federal Reserve. The bond market had already written...
Fed Chair Jerome Powell steps down after 8 years, stays on board
When Jerome Powell hands the Federal Reserve chairmanship to Kevin Warsh on May 15, 2026, he will do something almost none of his predecessors have...
Xi warned Trump that differences over Taiwan could lead to a “clash” — on Day 1 of a summit where traders give 81% odds the tariff truce gets extended
Chinese President Xi Jinping looked across the table at Donald Trump on May 14, 2026, the opening day of their bilateral summit, and delivered a...
Retail sales rose 0.5% in April — but furniture fell 2%, clothing fell 1.5%, and department stores dropped 3.2% because Americans are spending all their money on gas
Furniture sales fell 2%. Clothing dropped 1.5%. Department stores slid 3.2%. And yet the U.S. Census Bureau’s Advance Monthly Sales report for April 2026 (release...
The new Fed chair takes over with inflation at 3.8%, wholesale prices up 6%, and a 30% chance the Fed raises rates instead of cutting them
Kevin Warsh did not get a grace period. The new Federal Reserve chair took the oath on May 15, 2026, the day Jerome Powell’s four-year...
Producer prices for services jumped 1.2% in a single month, the biggest gain since 2022 — that’s the inflation the Fed can’t blame on oil
Wholesale prices spiked in April 2026, and the usual explanation doesn’t apply. It wasn’t oil. It wasn’t gasoline. It wasn’t a drought or a refinery...
The Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as Fed chair 54-45 tonight — the closest vote for a central bank leader in modern American history
Kevin Warsh was confirmed as the 17th chair of the Federal Reserve on the evening of May 13, 2026, surviving a 54-45 Senate vote that...
Trump flew 15 billionaire CEOs to Beijing on Air Force One — the same week wholesale prices jumped 6% and gas hit $4.51 back home
On the morning of May 13, 2026, Air Force One lifted off with President Donald Trump and at least 15 chief executives from some of...
Zero rate cuts are priced in for 2026 — and the man who just became Fed chair has never voted for one
The futures market has made its bet for 2026: no rate cuts at all. Fed-funds futures, as tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, now assign...
Wholesale inflation hit 6% the day after consumer inflation hit 3.8% — the one-two punch economists say means more price increases for everything you buy
A gallon of gas costs more to refine. A pallet of chicken costs more to ship. A contractor’s lumber bill is climbing again. And as...
Oil climbed above $102 WTI for the first time since 2022 — Trump says the Iran ceasefire is on “massive life support”
Oil climbed above $102 WTI for the first time since 2022 — Trump says the Iran ceasefire is on “massive life support” For the first...
Brent crude surged past $108 a barrel today — Saudi Aramco’s CEO says the world is losing 100 million barrels of oil supply every week
Brent crude blew past $108 a barrel on Tuesday, May 27, 2026, hitting its highest level in more than a year as a cascade of...
Traders just priced in a 30% chance the Fed raises interest rates — the first time a hike has been on the table since 2023
For the first time since the Federal Reserve pushed borrowing costs to a two-decade high in the summer of 2023, Wall Street is placing real...
Inflation hit 3.8% in April, the highest in three years — and energy prices drove more than 40% of the increase
A full tank of gas cost American drivers noticeably more in April than it did just a month earlier, and the government’s latest inflation report...
Only 191 ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz in April — down from the usual 3,000 a month — and the blockade is why gas went from $3 to $4.52 in ten weeks
The price on the pump at a Wawa outside Richmond, Virginia, read $2.96 on the last day of February. Ten weeks later, the same station...
Zero rate cuts are priced in for all of 2026 — and Goldman Sachs says the Fed won’t move until 2027
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its March 17-18, 2026, meeting, and the updated economic projections that accompanied the decision delivered a message...
Trump rejected Iran’s peace deal as “totally unacceptable” — oil jumped above $101, gas hit $4.52, and Kalshi traders now put 62% odds on $5-a-gallon fuel this year
President Donald Trump killed the latest attempt at a ceasefire with Iran this month, calling Tehran’s proposal “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!” on social media. Within hours, Brent...
The April CPI print tomorrow could show 3.7% inflation — the hottest annual reading in two years — and nearly all of it traces back to $4.52 gas
Fill up a mid-size SUV in Los Angeles right now and the receipt will top $85. Do the same thing in Houston and you will...
Jobless claims just fell to 189,000 — a number the U.S. hasn’t seen since Nixon was president in 1969
In the final week of April 2026, just 189,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits for the first time. The last time the number was that...
The “K-shaped economy” is back in the data — more Americans are superprime (780+ credit score) or subprime (below 600), and the middle is hollowing out
The share of Americans with credit scores at the top and bottom of the spectrum is growing, while the middle tiers are losing ground. That...