Economy & The Fed
Federal Reserve decisions, inflation data, interest rates, GDP, employment reports, recession indicators, and the broader economic picture.
Latest in Economy & The Fed
One-fifth of the world’s oil is now trapped behind the Strait of Hormuz — the largest energy supply shock ever recorded, and it just pushed gas to $4.53
The pump reads $4.53. For millions of American drivers filling up in June 2026, that number is the most visible consequence of a crisis unfolding...
Jet fuel prices are up 80% since the Iran war started — Delta says higher fuel costs alone will add $2 billion this quarter, and that bill lands on every summer flight
A round-trip flight from Atlanta to Los Angeles cost about $280 last June. This summer, the same route is pricing north of $400 on many...
Brent settled near $108 the morning Iran’s counteroffer collapsed — refiners typically pass crude hikes through to the pump in 7 to 10 days
Drivers filling up this week are still paying late-spring prices. That window is closing fast. Brent crude, the international benchmark that sets the cost of...
Wall Street now gives 71% odds of a Fed rate HIKE by March — because inflation hit 3.8% in April and the Fed’s last meeting had 4 dissents
The Federal Reserve hasn’t raised interest rates in over a year, but Wall Street is betting that streak is about to end. As of May...
Brent crude hit $111 the morning Iran’s ceasefire expired — Trump posted “there won’t be anything left of them” as a drone hit the UAE’s nuclear plant
A single drone crossed into the western United Arab Emirates on the morning of May 17, 2026, and struck an electricity generator on the outer...
Oil markets need until 2027 to rebalance even if the Iran war ends tomorrow — Aramco says Hormuz exports take months to restart, and the consumer pays the bill
Saudi Aramco’s chief executive told investors during the company’s first-quarter earnings call that restarting full crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz would take “many...
The Iran war just hit Day 77 — Brent is up 45%, gas is up 41%, and Wall Street still expects the Fed to do nothing about it
The fuel pump at a Costco outside Dallas read $4.23 a gallon on a recent weekday afternoon, and the line of cars stretched into the...
All three biggest investment banks now agree the Fed won’t cut rates in June — Warsh takes over with 98% market-priced odds of holding
JPMorgan Chase was the last to fall in line. With its research team now calling for a hold at the Federal Reserve’s June meeting, all...
Americans haven’t been this pessimistic about their finances since 2018 — 32% of households now expect things to get worse in 2026
A gallon of milk costs 26% more than it did in January 2020. Average rents in major metro areas have jumped by a similar margin....
Builder confidence just crashed to its lowest level since September — 24 straight months of negative readings is now the longest sentiment slump in NAHB history
Home builders have not felt good about the housing market in two full years, and the latest data shows their mood just got worse. The...
Iran’s ceasefire expires tomorrow — gas is $4.52, oil hit $109, and the last time Brent was this high, gas crossed $5 within three weeks
Fill your tank today. By this time next week, $4.52 a gallon could look like a bargain. The ceasefire between the United States and Iran,...
Oil surged past $107 a barrel after Trump said he’s “losing patience” with Iran — the last time Brent was this high, gas crossed $5 nationally within three weeks
The last time Brent crude held above $107 a barrel for more than a week, American drivers watched the national gasoline average blow past $5...
Iran said it “cannot trust the Americans at all” — a ship was seized off the UAE, an Indian cargo vessel was sunk, and the ceasefire expires in 48 hours
Within a single 24-hour stretch in mid-May 2026, armed individuals hijacked a vessel anchored off the United Arab Emirates and forced it toward Iranian waters,...
The 10-year Treasury hit 4.59% while the 30-year crossed 5.08% — the bond market is screaming that rates aren’t coming down anytime soon
If you spent the past year waiting for borrowing costs to drop, the bond market just answered with a two-word reply: not yet. In late...
A $25 billion Treasury auction just cleared at 5.046% — the last time the government paid this much to borrow for 30 years was before the iPhone existed
The U.S. Treasury sold $25 billion in 30-year bonds on May 13, 2026, and the clearing yield landed at 5.046 percent. That is the highest...
Gas hit $4.53 and Iran’s ceasefire expires in 48 hours — Kalshi bettors are now pricing in $5.60 a gallon by summer
Filling up a tank of regular gasoline now costs American drivers an average of $4.53 a gallon, the highest pre-summer price since 2022, according to...
Trump said he’s “losing patience” with Iran — the ceasefire expires Sunday, oil hit $107, and gas is 16 cents from the all-time U.S. record
The national average price of a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline has climbed to roughly $4.85, putting it within about 16 cents of the all-time...
The 30-year Treasury yield just hit 5.08% — the highest since 2007 — and every mortgage, car loan, and student loan in America is tied to that number
When the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield crossed 5.08% in late May 2025, mortgage lenders began repricing rate sheets before the trading day was over. Auto...
Retail spending rose for the third straight month — but strip out gas and the American consumer is barely growing at all
Three months of rising retail sales sound like a vote of confidence from American consumers. Look closer, and the streak has a catch: a growing...
132,000 tech workers have been laid off in 2026 — and the companies cutting them just posted record revenues and doubled their AI budgets
By the end of April 2026, technology companies had eliminated roughly 132,000 jobs, according to Layoffs.fyi, the widely cited tracker founded by Roger Lee. The...